In British supermarkets they introduced self serve stations where you scanned your purchases and paid without the need for a cashier. When buying produce customers had to put the items on the scanner, which was also a scale, look up the code for the item, enter it and the machine would calculate the price based on the item code and weight. At the time carrots were the cheapest produce (0.50 per pound), so people started to place expensive items on the scale (a favorite was Moet and Chandon Brut Champagne)-priced at 80.00 per bottle and weighing 1.00 pounds) and entering the code for carrots.
Humorous (?) Example
In this example (apocryphal possibly, but amusing) I would guess the consequences would be as follows.
First-Order Consequences (Immediate Effects)
1. Cost Savings on Labor – Supermarkets save money by reducing the number of cashiers needed.
2. Increased Efficiency – Customers can check out faster without waiting for a cashier.
3. More Customer Control – Shoppers can scan and bag items at their own pace.
4. Higher Theft and Fraud – Some customers realize they can cheat the system by mislabeling expensive items as cheap ones (e.g., Moët Champagne as carrots).
5. Frustration for Less Tech-Savvy Shoppers – Elderly and non-tech-savvy customers struggle with the machines, leading to longer checkout times and frustration.
Second-Order Consequences (Knock-On Effects)
1. Revenue Loss from Fraud – The “Champagne-as-carrots” trick becomes widespread, leading to millions in losses.
2. More Surveillance and AI Monitoring – Supermarkets install cameras and AI to catch barcode cheats.
3. Resurgence of Staff for “Support” – More staff are needed to monitor self-checkouts, defeating the purpose of cutting labor costs.
4. Customer Backlash – Some customers feel unfairly scrutinized, while others avoid self-checkout due to frequent errors and frustrating security alerts.
5. Public Relations Nightmares – Stories emerge of elderly customers being wrongly accused of theft, leading to negative media coverage.
Third-Order Consequences (Long-Term Outcomes)
1. Stricter Anti-Theft Measures – Supermarkets implement weight sensors, AI fraud detection, and receipt scanning at exits.
2. Shift in Retail Experience – Some stores reconsider fully automated checkout and reintroduce human cashiers as a premium service.
3. Laws and Regulations – Governments step in with policies on self-checkout security, privacy concerns, and legal responsibilities for customers wrongly accused of theft.
4. Consumer Trust Issues – Shoppers become wary of self-checkout systems, leading to decreased adoption or a demand for alternative solutions.
5. Innovation in Payment Technology – Retailers explore cashier-less stores (like Amazon Go) where sensors track purchases automatically, making self-checkout obsolete.
Final Takeaway
Supermarkets thought self-checkout would save money by reducing staff, but in reality, theft, customer dissatisfaction, and the need for additional security measures offset the savings. This demonstrates a classic case of unintended consequences, where a seemingly straightforward cost-cutting measure introduces a cascade of new problems that, in some cases, make things worse.
In other words: Replacing humans with machines isn’t always cheaper in the long run!
These concepts are often used in systems thinking, decision-making, and risk analysis to understand the broader implications of choices.
More Generally, with less humorous results
1. First-Order Consequences
- These are the direct, immediate, and often intended outcomes of an action.
- They are the most obvious and easiest to predict.
- Example: If you eat unhealthy food, the first-order consequence is that you feel satisfied in the moment.
2. Second-Order Consequences
- These are the indirect effects that occur as a result of the first-order consequences.
- They are often less obvious and may take longer to manifest.
- Example: Continuing to eat unhealthy food over time leads to weight gain or health issues (second-order consequence).
3. Third-Order Consequences
- These are the long-term, often unintended, and sometimes far-reaching effects that ripple out from the initial action.
- They are the hardest to predict and can have significant impacts on systems, societies, or individuals.
- Example: Chronic health problems from poor diet may lead to increased medical costs, reduced quality of life, or even broader societal impacts like higher healthcare burdens.
Disastrous Real-Life Examples
1. Introduction of Cane Toads in Australia (1935)
- First-Order Consequence: Cane toads were introduced to control beetle populations damaging sugarcane crops.
- Second-Order Consequence: The toads failed to control the beetles and instead multiplied rapidly.
- Third-Order Consequence: The toads became an invasive species, outcompeting native wildlife, poisoning predators, and disrupting ecosystems.
2. The Use of DDT (Dichlorodiphenyltrichloroethane)
- First-Order Consequence: DDT was widely used as an effective pesticide to control malaria and agricultural pests.
- Second-Order Consequence: DDT accumulated in the food chain, causing harm to wildlife, particularly birds.
- Third-Order Consequence: The near-extinction of species like the bald eagle due to eggshell thinning, leading to environmental regulations like the banning of DDT in many countries.
3. The Iraq War (2003)
- First-Order Consequence: The U.S.-led invasion aimed to remove Saddam Hussein and eliminate weapons of mass destruction (WMDs).
- Second-Order Consequence: The power vacuum and sectarian tensions led to widespread violence and insurgency.
- Third-Order Consequence: The rise of extremist groups like ISIS, regional destabilization, and long-term humanitarian crises.
4. The Green Revolution in Agriculture (Mid-20th Century)
- First-Order Consequence: High-yield crop varieties and chemical fertilizers dramatically increased food production, reducing hunger.
- Second-Order Consequence: Over-reliance on monocultures and chemicals led to soil degradation, water pollution, and loss of biodiversity.
- Third-Order Consequence: Long-term environmental damage, reduced agricultural resilience, and health issues from chemical exposure.
5. The 2008 Financial Crisis
- First-Order Consequence: Risky mortgage lending and financial deregulation led to a housing bubble.
- Second-Order Consequence: The bubble burst, causing widespread bank failures and a global recession.
- Third-Order Consequence: Long-term economic inequality, loss of trust in financial institutions, and stricter regulations.
6. Plastic Use in the 20th Century
- First-Order Consequence: Plastic became a cheap, durable, and versatile material, revolutionizing industries.
- Second-Order Consequence: Overproduction and improper disposal led to massive plastic waste accumulation.
- Third-Order Consequence: Microplastics entering the food chain, harming marine life, and posing health risks to humans.
I was wondering how this might apply to DOGE in USA
I was wondering how this approach might be applied to the current government layoff program in the USA (February 2025). I used a mind map to organize my thoughts.
This made me wonder what the objectives of the exercise are, so I revisited my technique for establishing complex objectives, and I must admit I am not able to develop a coherent statement.
Another example-not sure if second or third order consequences of government layoffs in the USA. From Inside Higher Ed web site.
Universities should look to recruit researchers fleeing the U.S. amid dramatic funding cuts by the Trump administration because it could help protect vital scientific expertise from being lost, according to the rector of a leading Belgian university.
Vrije Universiteit Brussel (VUB) has announced a host of new postdoctoral positions for international academics, stating that the institution “particularly welcomes excellent researchers currently working in the U.S. which see their line of research threatened.”
Can this be applied to employers compensating employees for gym memberships to promote a healthier, less sick workforce? The companies can weigh reimbursement costs vs. sick day productivity loss. Google has onsite gyms and yoga classes to promote wellness. Interested in their data.
On march 17, 2025 The New York Times reported that a number of the people who took the “resign in three days and get 6 months pay and don’t come into the office” were in jobs which were in short supply in the private sector and were immediately offered jobs. Unfortunately their skills were also critical in the public sector. A second order consequence as predicted.